21 Jan 2016 WEF
Ray Dalio, who heads the $160 billion hedge fund firm Bridgewater, says China's economy is headed for a "sort-of recession," that will last as long as three years. Dalio says the implications of that could be huge for the world economy, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
"China's debt is not too high right now," says Dalio. "But it's growing faster than incomes and that's not sustainable."
Dalio doesn't actually expect China's growth rate to turn negative or even close to it. He does say, though, that the country's economic growth will likely fall to 5% or lower for the next few years, and that that will feel like a recession. China's government has targeted GDP growth around 7%, but undershot that in 2015, even according to figures that many western economists fear were inflated. "Years ago we used to describe 3% growth in Japan as a recession," says Dalio. "For China, I think that level is 5%."
Dalio still thinks China's economy will do well in the long term, and that regulators and policy-makers have generally done a good job in dealing with the current economic troubles.
http://fortune.com/2016/01/21/china-recession-dalio/
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