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Selloffs in Brazil and Russia are overdone, time to invest?

Mary Ho  •  Messages: 2  •  Years on forum: 11.2 09:16 AM 10/19/2015
Some of the big funds think so. Is there substance in their moves?

-- Brazil --

“You’ve got the classic ‘everything’s as bad as it can possibly be’” situation, said Booth, the chairman of New Sparta Asset Management, an investment company he started after leaving Ashmore in 2013. “But it’s all priced in now."

Brazil’s overseas bonds are close to reaching bottom, according to Booth, after losing investors 8.3 percent this year. Only Zambia has posted worse returns among more than 60 emerging-market countries tracked by JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes. Brazil’s currency, which gained 0.7 percent Monday as of 2:03 p.m. in New York, is still down 32 percent against the dollar this year, the most among major emerging markets.

After three sovereign rating cuts in the past three months, one of which cost Brazil its investment-grade rating, the government will put a “proper economic program” in place and restore investor confidence, Booth said.

“I would think it’s months rather than a year,” he predicted.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-19/brazil-bull-who-got-it-right-in-2002-says-this-time-no-different

-- Russia --

Mike Rosborough, a senior money manager at the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, said the ruble has “found stability” and Russian bond yields are “very high.” The 14 percent gain in the ruble since the end of August has put it on a firmer footing, helping ease concern about the impact of international sanctions linked to the Ukraine dispute, said Pablo Goldberg, an emerging-market money manager and senior debt strategist at BlackRock Inc., which oversees $4.5 trillion.

“Since the emerging-market problems started, and really probably the last two years, we’ve been underweight,” Rosborough, who helps oversee Calpers’ $295 billion in assets, said in an interview in Moscow on Wednesday, referring to Russian sovereign debt. “Now we’re above-weight.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-15/calpers-joins-blackrock-s-goldberg-ramping-up-on-russian-debt?cmpid=linkedin.company

Jim Ferry  •  Messages: 2  •  Years on forum: 11.2 05:25 PM 10/28/2015
I think there is definitely substance in this. EMs investors are often mix up political and economical risks. For example, global FMCG and food companies entered Russia right after fall of communism when there were almost no property rights and functioning markets.

May Leng  •  Messages: 8  •  Years on forum: 11.2 04:04 PM 11/09/2015
Before you decide to invest, take a note that recently Goldman merged BRIC fund with Emerging Markets Equity Fund which means BRIC countries don't have good growth prospects any more based on Goldman perspective.



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